Senior Economist

JOB SUMMARY

Support the Director of Economic Planning by assisting with time-series forecasting activities in support of the Company’s long and short-range business and capital spending plans. Utilize industry data to forecast probable economic outcomes for North American economies and for the freight markets that impact TTX. Primary responsibility will be to forecast North American economic activity and freight specific metrics (intermodal activity, imports etc.) Clearly provide, and make easily available, the forecast for the Marketing group and TTX via Power BI Dashboards.

Relate the economy and market conditions to the use of the Company’s railcar fleets as well as to the required investments for fleet expansion. Provide support for operating decisions surrounding repair, storage, and scrapping. The Senior Economist is also responsible for: tracking industry statistics, development of forecasting models (Python), management of forecasting data, including both internal and external data sources, and for preparation of TTX reports and publications describing economic and industry conditions.

The Senior Economist must be able to quantify the effect of economic trends on TTX’s business through the development of forecasting models and the use of statistical techniques as well as preparation of periodic written analysis and presentation materials describing the economy and its impact on the company’s business. Also provide support for the relationship with TTX’s external economic and industry data/forecast vendors as well as the process of recommending the best mix of data and data suppliers. 

Given the complexity of the rail industry, this role also requires direct communications and solid relationships with individuals who have first-hand experience with rail markets and to incorporate their feedback to create a better forecast. The position must work closely with the TTX field marketing team to provide planning and outlook presentation materials to support their conversations with railroads, shippers, ports and other industry participants for the purpose of gaining new or alternative viewpoints for the Company. The Senior Economist will also be actively involved in appropriate professional and industry organizations at both the local and national level.

The Senior Economist must have extensive knowledge of the U.S. economy and should have strong business writing skills to be able to effectively communicate economic trends and how they will have an impact on the freight economy. Explanation of economic trends must be conveyed clearly and concisely in a way that is easy for non-economists to absorb and understand. This written analysis will be completed on a weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual basis.

Travels approximately 20% of the time.

RESPONSIBILITIES

·         Economic Forecasts

o   Assist in providing economic forecasts that drive the entire planning process. Review and analyze purchased industry data and forecasts to recommend a TTX forecast for key economic elements such as North American GDP, consumer spending, industrial production, housing starts, auto production, etc. Forecasts are created annually and updated quarterly.

·         Quarterly Fleet and Capital Forecasts

o   Work with the forecasting team to execute and improve forecasts for TTX’s equipment types with an emphasis on intermodal. A containerized import forecast and a domestic demand forecast drive the process and combine to create an intermodal loadings projection. Similar loadings/demand forecasts will be completed in the commodity markets that drive TTX’s fleet usage. An annual four-year plan is created with quarterly updates.

o   Combine loadings forecasts with railcar cycle time estimates to create fleet usage forecasts. A capital requirements outlook is created for instances where longer-term forecasted demand exceeds current fleet size.

o   Prepare presentation materials and share the forecasts, and the underlying analysis, with progressing outward levels that begin with the Marketing team, TTX’s senior leadership and culminate with TTX’s railroad owners. The final product, with revisions received from input, will be incorporated into the materials for TTX’s Board of Directors.

·         Board Materials

o   Assist in the creation of materials required for quarterly Board meetings including presentations that will convey summaries of current economic conditions and forecasts as well as the impact those forecasts have on TTX’s fleet usage and capital requirement forecasts. Ensure the materials have been well vetted with the larger Marketing team prior to due dates. There are four quarterly updates as well as a detailed annual plan.

·         Publications

o   Work with Marketing team to publish key TTX external reports including the quarterly Economic Monitor, all contracted