Economist - Global Economics Forecasting

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JOB SUMMARY

The Economist- Global Economic Forecasting will report to the Chief Economist and collaborate with the Global Economics team to support business strategy and investment reviews. They will develop and enhance models for forecasting key macroeconomic variables and present these forecasts to senior leadership and external clients. The role involves conducting macroeconomic and industry research, focusing on drivers like real estate markets, monetary policy, and inflation.

This role will sit in the Washington, DC office on a hybrid schedule of two days in the office, three days remote.

RESPONSIBILITIES AND ACCOUNTABILITIES

• Support the development of the U.S. and global economic outlook and design alternative scenarios

• Assist with the development, maintenance, and enhancement of econometric models for macroeconomic forecasting

• Communicate changes to the economic outlook and alternative scenarios to senior leadership and clients

• Analyze economic and industry cycles to assess impacts on existing businesses and consider new strategic initiatives

• Support and answer queries from clients, senior leadership, business partners, and auditors

• Monitor daily economic releases and events, and stay updated on trends in capital, mortgage, and housing markets

• Provide research and analytical support to the Chief Economist, including recurring and ad-hoc reports and presentations

• Generate engaging content across various formats, including rapid reactions to economic events and collaborative research

REQUIRED SKILLS AND ABILITIES

• Expertise in global macroeconomic research, focusing on developed markets

• Strong quantitative, analytical, and problem-solving skills

• Excellent written and verbal communication skills, with the ability to deliver executive-level presentations

• Detail-oriented self-starter, able to synthesize data and clearly articulate conclusions

• Advanced Microsoft Office skills, especially in Excel and PowerPoint, for presenting data effectively

• Proficiency with statistical software (e.g., EViews, Python, R) and basic programming concepts

DESIRED SKILLS AND ABILITIES

• Outstanding interpersonal skills with experience presenting to large audiences and interfacing with clients

• Expert on the economic and political landscape of the U.S., Australia, Euro area, and U.K., with an intimate understanding of real estate market dynamics in each

• Aspiring leader with experience managing multiple project workstreams alongside inbound questions and ad-hoc requests

• Extensive experience with macroeconomic forecasting, structural equation modeling, panel estimation, and cointegration techniques

EDUCATION AND EXPERIENCE

• Bachelor’s or Master’s in Economics, Econometrics, Quantitative Finance, or related field

• 5+ years relevant experience

• Direct experience with the development of macroeconomic outlooks and scenarios via econometric time series forecasting

• Preferred, but not required, is a Ph.D. in Economics with a minimum of 4 years experience in economics at a top-tier asset manager, investment bank, consulting firm, or government agency

#LI-AT1

#LI-hybrid

For individuals assigned or hired to work in the location(s) indicated below, the base salary range is provided. Range is as of the time of posting. Position is incentive eligible.

$127,000 - $180,000/year

• Total individual compensation (base salary, short & long-term incentives) offered will take into account a number of factors including but not limited to geographic location, scope & responsibilities of the role, qualifications, talent availability & specialization as well as business needs. The above pay range may be modified in the future.

• Arch is committed to helping employees succeed through our comprehensive benefits package that includes multiple medical plans plus dental, vision and prescription drug coverage; a competitive 401k with generous matching; PTO beginning at 20 days per year; up to 12 paid company holidays per year plus 2 paid days of Volunteer Time Offer; basic Life and AD&D Insurance as well as Short and Long-Term Disability; Paid Parental Leave of up t