Principal Economist

Principal, Economist - UZ06BE

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Overview of the Position:

Reporting to the Head of The Global Insights Center/Economic and Geopolitical Risk, the Economist will be responsible for analyzing key US economic data points and their implications on underwriting risk, with a focus on the impact on the construction sector.  

The candidate will conduct research on the US economy, and at times the global economy. The candidate will focus their analysis on the construction industry and forecast expected trends in this space. This can include the outlook for construction activity and demand, spending on construction, and expectations for labor demand. The candidate will also work beyond the construction industry and may also conduct research on overall labor market dynamics, as well as developments in other industries. The focus will be to ascertain key trends in the economy and sectors to identify how they can impact underwriting outcomes. 

Ideally, the candidate will have experience or knowledge with building and using econometric models to support their economic and industry forecasting work.

The candidate will work closely with, and support, the Head of the Global Insights Center to ensure that the output of their research is applicable across the enterprise to support the firm’s business units and related functions. The candidate will often join the head of the unit when briefing internal and external stakeholders to provide actionable intelligence to further business decisions. 

The candidate will interface with the leadership and underwriting units across The Office of the Chief Underwriting Officer, Global Specialty, Middle and Large Commercial, Small Commercial, Group Benefits, Claims, Actuary, and at times the firm’s investment team in HIMCO. The purpose will be to explain economic data, insights, and trends to support their respective decisions including risk allocation, budgeting, reserving, and claims forecasting. 

The candidate will contribute to the Insights Center various research publications, which will be distributed both internally and externally. In addition, the candidate will determine new avenues of conducting research, generating content, and building models that can further the firm’s overall goals and initiatives. 

Responsibilities: 
The primary responsibilities for the position include the following:

Economic Analysis 
•    Conduct research on the US and at times international economy.
•    Focus on the construction sector and forecast trends in this industry.
•    Generate assessments of both residential and nonresidential construction, including more nuanced drivers of growth or weakness in both categories.
•    Develop forecasts for labor dynamics in the construction sector.
•    As necessary, expand focus of research beyond construction to include general labor trends and the outlook for other key industries in the US economy, including small business conditions.
•    Build econometric models and other quantitative tools to forecast economic trends and their implications for various aspects of the business.
•    Develop outlooks for monetary conditions and interest rates. 
•    Track consumer trends and spending patterns. 
•    Determine areas of growth and weakness in the US economy, with a particular focus on how it could affect various insurance lines. 
•    Develop broad macroeconomic trends and narratives with respect to expected developments in the US economy. 
•    Think creatively of additional means of tracking the US economy and formats of delivering content.

Internal Risk Support (75%)
•    Support the Head of the Global Insights Center by providing forecasts and outlooks that can be utilized across business units in the enterprise, but especially construction. 
•    Generate economic intelligence and content that can be utilized by the firm’s executive leadership, and senior leadership across the Office of the Chief Underwriting Officer, Global Specialty, Middle and Large Commercial, Small Commercial, and Group Benefits business units, and as applicable HIMCO. 
•    Work alongside underwriters by providing economic views and their implications for product lines to support risk decisions. 
•    Generate research publications that can be utilized by the firm’s leadership and underwriting units.
•    Work with the firm’s finance teams to project trends in premium generation based upon the economic outlook to support the budget process.
•    Consult the firm’s actuarial de