Senior Director, Commercial Insights & BD Forecasting

At Lilly, we unite caring with discovery to make life better for people around the world. We are a global healthcare leader headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Our employees around the world work to discover and bring life-changing medicines to those who need them, improve the understanding and management of disease, and give back to our communities through philanthropy and volunteerism. We give our best effort to our work, and we put people first. We’re looking for people who are determined to make life better for people around the world.

Senior Director, Business Development Forecasting & Analytics

Corporate Business Development | Reports to VP, Corporate Development and BD Strategy

The Role:

This is not a forecast-maintenance role. We're looking for someone who builds conviction — who can walk into an unfamiliar therapeutic area, do the primary work, and produce a commercially defensible point of view where little internal precedent exists. You'll be the person in the room who has done the work and can stand behind it.

Reporting to the VP of Corporate Development and BD Strategy, you'll lead end-to-end commercial assessment for licensing, acquisition, and partnership opportunities across markets new or adjacent to Lilly's current portfolio — and build the forecasting infrastructure that raises the quality of BD analytics across the organization.

White Space Assessment & Market Intelligence

Lead commercial assessments from early landscape scoping through full deal-stage forecasting, with a clear and defensible POV at each stage

Rapidly develop substantive expertise in unfamiliar therapeutic areas — synthesizing epidemiology, treatment algorithms, competitive dynamics, payer landscapes, and emerging clinical data

Proactively size white space opportunities before formal deal processes begin; track signals across pipelines, regulatory trends, and payer policy to anticipate where markets are heading

Market Research Leadership

Design and lead primary research programs (qualitative and quantitative) with physicians, payers, patients, and channel partners — especially where secondary data is thin

Commission and critically evaluate third-party research; translate external deliverables into actionable commercial insight

Build Lilly's institutional knowledge base in new markets through documented findings, assumptions, and forecast rationale that persist beyond individual deals

Forecasting Model Development

Build flexible, reusable forecasting models with modular architecture, shared assumptions, and clear documentation

Deploy approaches suited to data-scarce environments: analogue models, epidemiology-driven patient flow frameworks, expert elicitation, and scenario trees

Model the full commercial picture — uptake trajectories, competitive erosion, pricing and access assumptions, channel dynamics, lifecycle scenarios, and risk-adjusted probability of success

Go-to-Market & Channel Strategy

Evaluate innovative commercial approaches — outcomes-based contracting, risk-sharing structures, novel launch sequencing — and assess their viability in new market entries

Analyze channel architecture trade-offs (specialty pharmacy, buy-and-bill, direct-to-patient, GPO/IDN) and their impact on revenue, access, and deal valuation

BD Partnership & Executive Influence

Serve as the commercial analytics partner to BD leadership from initial screening through due diligence, term sheet development, and integration planning

Present forecasts to senior executives with the confidence to defend assumptions, acknowledge uncertainty honestly, and make clear recommendations — not just ranges

Engage directly with external counterparties and advisors during diligence, representing Lilly's commercial perspective with authority

Minimum Qualifications:

• Bachelor's or advanced degree in a scientific field
• 10+ years in pharmaceutical or biotech commercial strategy, BD analytics, market research, or strategic forecasting

Preferred Qualifications:

• Master’s degree
• Meaningful exposure beyond a single therapeutic area
• Demonstrated track record building commercial conviction in new or ambiguous markets — not just maintaining existing forecasts
• Experience leading primary market research: study design, vendor management, and synthesis into commercial recommendations
• Strong financial modeling skills: bottoms-up and epidemiology-based revenue forecasting, DCF/rNPV analysis, sensitivity and scenario modeling
• Deep understanding of how pharmaceutical markets work: tre