Manager, RLC Forecasting and Demand Planning

About Carrier:

Carrier, global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, is committed to creating innovations that bring comfort, safety and sustainability to life. Through cutting-edge advancements in climate solutions such as temperature control, air quality and transportation, we improve lives, empower critical industries and ensure the safe transport of food, life-saving medicines and more. Since inventing modern air conditioning in 1902, we lead with purpose: enhancing the lives we live and the world we share. We continue to lead because of our world-class, inclusive workforce that puts the customer at the center of everything we do. For more information, visit corporate.carrier.com or follow Carrier on social media at @Carrier.

About This Role: 

The Forecasting and Demand Planning Manager is responsible for developing a data-informed five-year industry outlook and a Carrier-specific demand sensing outlook for the North America Residential and Light Commercial markets.  

In partnership with the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team, this critical role will monitor industry trends, competitive dynamics, customer behavior, and emerging opportunities.  

This role partners closely with the Climate Solutions Americas Strategy Director responsible for Residential and Light Commercial business units, as well as executive leadership and cross-functional teams to shape near-term and long-range demand and strategic planning. 

Key Responsibilities: 

Regional Forecasting 

• Leverage, maintain, and refine industry outlook models developed to forecast the North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC markets for the monthly Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process, Annual Operating Plan (Plan) and five-year Long-Range Plan 

• Pressure-test the Annual Operating Plan (Plan) industry outlook forecast to ensure achievability and reasonableness 

• Generate supplemental industry outlook forecast scenarios through sensitivity analysis against key variables and assumptions to provide senior leadership with a lower and upper bound for the forecast, in addition to the baseline forecast  

• Leverage, maintain, and refine Carrier’s demand sensing forecast for Residential and Light Commercial to detect and respond to short-term changes in customer demand 

• Collaborate with North America Sales & Operations Planning personnel to mutually develop the SIOP monthly demand forecast for North America Residential and Light Commercial, which balances unconstrainted demand and supply constraints 

Forecast Performance Monitoring 

• Track and continuously monitor and improve forecast model accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE  

 Forecasting & Demand Planning Dashboard 

• Leverage, maintain, and refine PowerBI / QuickSight dashboard of standard planning and forecasting analytics for senior leadership, inclusive of “Red Flag” metrics (e.g. shipment vs. movement, fill rate deltas, actual vs. plan, Add On Replacement vs. Residential New Construction split) 

Market Intelligence Integration 

• Incorporate U.S. and Canadian regulatory changes (e.g., SEER2 standards, refrigerant transition) and insights from the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team into the forecast and demand planning models 

• Maintain an in-depth knowledge of designated markets and trends through monitoring industry reports, market research, and relevant macroeconomic data, most notably from S&P, Moody’s, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and HARDI  

Channel Collaboration 

• Collaborate with Carrier Distributor Sales, Distributor Performance, and Strategic Account leadership as well as with North American distributors, dealer advisory councils and OEM partners gather demand signals and validate forecast assumptions 

General 

• Aggressively identify opportunities to leverage and deploy AI tools and new data sources to improve model accuracy 

• Demonstrated ability to communicate complex information clearly and accurately to a variety of audiences both orally and through written material 

• Transform large amounts of data into meaningful and impactful terms 

Required Qualifications: 

• Bachelor’s degree  

• 5+ years of experience developing executive-level summaries and presentations 

• 5+ years of advanced knowledge and work in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint 

• 5+ years of advanced demand planning and forecasting 

Preferred Qualifications: 

• Master’s degree, preferably in Business Administration